INTERNATIONAL ELECTIONS JUNE PART 2, 2024

1) France National Assembly Elections:-

In the French legislative elections held on June 30 and July 7, 2024, the left-wing coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), emerged as the largest bloc in the National Assembly, securing 182 seats. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble coalition followed with 168 seats, while the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) obtained 143 seats. The conservative Les Républicains (LR) garnered 39 seats. This distribution resulted in a hung parliament, as no single party or coalition achieved the 289 seats required for an absolute majority in the 577-seat assembly.

The election outcome led to significant political uncertainty. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal tendered his resignation, which President Macron accepted on July 16. In the absence of a clear majority, Macron initiated consultations with various political leaders to form a new government capable of commanding sufficient support within the fragmented assembly.

After nearly two months of deliberations, on September 5, 2024, President Macron appointed Michel Barnier, a seasoned conservative politician and former EU Brexit negotiator, as the new Prime Minister. Barnier's appointment was seen as a strategic move to bridge the divide between centrist and right-leaning factions, aiming to establish a stable government despite the lack of a parliamentary majority.

Summary:- The formation of Barnier's government, announced on September 21, comprised members from Macron's centrist allies and conservative figures, notably excluding representatives from the far-right RN. This composition underscored Macron's intent to maintain a centrist approach while seeking broader support from the right. However, the exclusion of the NFP, despite its plurality in the assembly, sparked protests and accusations of democratic denial from left-wing leaders. The new government faces the challenge of navigating a deeply divided parliament, requiring careful negotiation to pass legislation and maintain political stability.

2) Iceland Presidential Elections: -

In the Icelandic presidential election held on June 1, 2024, businesswoman and investor Halla Tómasdóttir was elected as the country's seventh president, securing 34.3% of the vote. She triumphed over former Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir, who received 25.2%, and Halla Hrund Logadóttir, who garnered 15.5%.Tómasdóttir's victory marked a significant moment in Iceland's political history, as she became the nation's second female president, following Vigdís Finnbogadóttir's election in 1980.

Tómasdóttir campaign emphasized a non-partisan approach, focusing on critical issues such as the impact of social media on youth mental health, the development of Iceland's tourism industry, and the ethical considerations surrounding artificial intelligence. Her platform resonated with voters seeking a unifying figure above traditional party politics. Prior to her presidential bid, Tómasdóttir co-founded Auður Capital, an investment firm noted for its resilience during Iceland's financial crisis, and served as CEO of The B Team, a non-profit advocating for responsible business practices.

The election was notable for its high voter turnout, with 78.83% of eligible voters casting ballots—the highest participation rate in a presidential election since 1996. This robust engagement reflected the electorate's active interest in the nation's leadership and the issues at stake. Tómasdóttir inauguration took place on August 1, 2024, succeeding Guðni Th. Jóhannesson, who chose not to seek a third term.

Summary:- Iceland's tradition of electing women to high office continued with Tómasdóttir's election, reinforcing the country's commitment to gender equality. Her presidency is anticipated to bring a fresh perspective to the largely ceremonial role, with an emphasis on inclusivity and addressing contemporary societal challenges. Observers expect her to leverage her business acumen and leadership experience to foster national unity and guide discussions on Iceland's future direction.

3) Belgium Federal Elections June 2024:-

In the Belgian federal elections held on June 9, 2024, the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), led by   Bart De Wever, secured the largest share of seats in the Chamber of Representatives, obtaining 24 out of 150 seats. The far-right Vlaams Belang increased its representation to 20 seats, while the Francophone liberal Reformist Movement (MR) gained six seats, bringing its total to 20. The Workers' Party of Belgium (PVDA-PTB) also saw gains, reaching 15 seats. Conversely, the Socialist Party (PS) experienced a decline, securing 16 seats, a loss of four.

The election results indicated a significant shift to the right in Belgian politics, particularly in Flanders, where right-wing parties like N-VA and Vlaams Belang garnered substantial support. Despite pre-election polls suggesting a potential surge for Vlaams Belang, the party did not surpass N-VA, which maintained its position as the leading party in Flanders.

Following the elections, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced his resignation after his party, Open Vld, suffered considerable losses, securing only seven seats, a reduction of five. This outcome underscored the electorate's desire for change and set the stage for complex coalition negotiations, a hallmark of Belgium's multifaceted political landscape.

Summary:- The process of forming a new federal government commenced on June 10, 2024. Bart De Wever was appointed as the formateur, tasked with leading coalition discussions. However, by late November, King Philippe extended De Wever's mandate, urging him to expedite the formation process. The intricate nature of Belgium's political system, characterized by linguistic and regional divisions, has historically led to protracted government formations, with the current negotiations reflecting these enduring challenges.

4) Bulgaria National Elections June 2024: -

On June 9, 2024, Bulgaria held early parliamentary elections alongside the European Parliament elections. The center-right coalition GERB–SDS, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, secured the largest share of votes, approximately 24%, translating to 68 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly. Despite this plurality, GERB–SDS fell short of an outright majority, necessitating coalition negotiations to form a government.

The elections were marked by a record low voter turnout of 34%, the lowest since the end of communist rule in 1989. This apathy reflected widespread public dissatisfaction with the political instability that has plagued Bulgaria, leading to six parliamentary elections within a three-year span.

Summary:- Following the election, President Rumen Radev initiated the constitutional process of government formation by offering mandates to the leading parties. However, both GERB–SDS and the reformist alliance we continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) were unable to secure sufficient support to establish a stable coalition. Consequently, the mandate was passed to the populist There Is Such a People (ITN) party, the smallest group in Parliament, which also failed to form a government.

The repeated inability to form a functioning government led to the dissolution of the National Assembly and the scheduling of yet another snap election, the seventh in three years, highlighting the ongoing political fragmentation and instability in Bulgaria.

5) Croatia National Elections June 2024: -

In the Croatian parliamentary elections held on April 17, 2024, the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), led by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, secured 61 seats in the 151-seat Sabor (parliament). This result marked HDZ's fourth consecutive plurality in parliamentary elections. The main opposition, the center-left Rivers of Justice coalition, led by President Zoran Milanović, obtained 42 seats. The far-right Homeland Movement (DP), under Ivan Penava's leadership, emerged as a significant force, winning 14 seats and positioning itself as a potential kingmaker in the formation of the new government.

The election was characterized by a high voter turnout of 62.3%, a notable increase from the 42% turnout in the 2020 elections. This surge in participation reflected heightened public engagement with the political process.

The campaign period was marked by intense debates, particularly concerning the role of far-right parties in Croatian politics and the potential implications for the country's democratic values and minority rights.

Following the election, HDZ initiated coalition negotiations to secure a governing majority. On May 8, 2024, Prime Minister Plenković announced a coalition agreement with the Homeland Movement and representatives of national minorities, collectively holding 78 seats. This alliance enabled Plenković to secure a third consecutive term as Prime Minister.

The inclusion of the far-right Homeland Movement in the government marked a significant shift in Croatia's political landscape, aligning with broader European trends of right-wing parties gaining governmental influence.

Summary:- The new government, approved by the Sabor on May 17, 2024, comprises 18 ministers, with 15 from HDZ and three from the Homeland Movement. Notably, the Homeland Movement assumed control of key ministries, including Agriculture and Economy.

This coalition formation has raised concerns among observers about potential impacts on minority rights and Croatia's commitment to European Union democratic standards, given the Homeland Movement's nationalist and socially conservative platform.

6) Hungary Local Elections June 2024: -

On June 9, 2024, Hungary conducted local elections concurrently with the European Parliament elections, resulting in a significant political shift. The ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition maintained its dominance by securing majorities in all 19 county assemblies and winning 16 of the 26 largest cities. However, their overall support declined compared to previous years, with the coalition receiving 44.5% of the vote in the European Parliament elections, marking their weakest performance since Hungary's EU accession in 2004

A notable development was the emergence of the Respect and Freedom (TISZA) party, led by Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member. TISZA secured approximately 29.7% of the vote in the European Parliament elections, translating to seven out of Hungary's 21 seats. This strong performance established TISZA as a significant opposition force, challenging Fidesz's long-standing political dominance.

In Budapest, the mayoral race was particularly competitive. Incumbent Mayor Gergely Karácsony, an independent with green affiliations, narrowly defeated Fidesz-backed candidate Dávid Vitézy. Karácsony's victory indicated sustained support for progressive leadership in the capital, contrasting with Fidesz's broader national influence.

Summary:- The elections were marked by a record-high voter turnout of 59%, reflecting increased public engagement in the political process. This heightened participation underscored a growing desire among citizens for political change and diversification. The rise of TISZA and the competitive races in key urban areas suggest a potential shift in Hungary's political landscape, indicating challenges ahead for Fidesz's continued hegemony.

7) Ireland Local Body Elections June 2024: -

On June 7, 2024, Ireland held local elections across all 31 local authorities, coinciding with the European Parliament elections. The elections were conducted using the proportional representation-single transferable vote (PR-STV) system within various local electoral areas (LEAs). Notably, this election featured a record number of female candidates, with women comprising 31.4% (682 out of 2,171) of the total candidates.

Fianna Fáil emerged as the largest party in local government, securing 248 seats. Fine Gael closely followed with 245 seats. Both parties experienced a decline in vote share compared to the 2019 local elections. Sinn Féin obtained 101 seats, reflecting a modest increase but falling short of expectations, especially given their previous high polling figures.

Summary:- The Social Democrats doubled their representation, securing 35 seats, while the Green Party faced challenges, obtaining 24 seats, indicating a decrease from prior performances. Independent candidates continued to play a significant role, collectively winning 219 seats, underscoring the electorate's inclination towards non-traditional party affiliations.

Voter turnout stood at 49.4%, slightly down from 50.2% in 2019. This election also marked the first direct election of a mayor in Limerick, a significant development in Ireland's local governance. Overall, the results highlighted a competitive multi-party landscape, with traditional parties maintaining substantial influence despite emerging challenges from smaller parties and independents.