INTERNATIONAL ELECTIONS OCTOBER 2024

1) Mozambique: - Mozambique held its general elections on October 9, 2024, to elect the president, 250 members of the Assembly of the Republic, and members of the ten provincial assemblies. The ruling party, Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO), nominated Daniel Chapo as its presidential candidate. Chapo secured approximately 70.67% of the vote, while independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane received about 20.32%, and Renamo's Ossufo Momade garnered 5.81%. These results extended FRELIMO's nearly five-decade rule since Mozambique's independence in 1975.

The election process faced significant criticism from opposition parties and international observers. Allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities were widespread. The European Union's observer mission reported instances of "unjustified alteration" of results at some polling stations and noted that some observers were prevented from monitoring the counting process. Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane disputed the official results, claiming he was the true winner and calling for nationwide protests.

Summary:- Post-election unrest escalated, leading to violent confrontations between protesters and security forces. At least 10 people were reported killed by police during demonstrations, with medical groups accusing law enforcement of using excessive force. The situation was further aggravated by the killings of two prominent opposition figures, Elvino Dias and Paulo Guambe, in Maputo shortly after the election. These incidents intensified tensions and raised concerns about political violence in the country.

Despite the controversies, the election marked a significant moment in Mozambique's political landscape. Daniel Chapo's victory introduced a new leadership under FRELIMO, with expectations of addressing ongoing challenges such as the insurgency in Cabo Delgado province and economic issues like high unemployment and severe drought-induced hunger affecting 1.3 million people. However, the allegations of electoral misconduct and subsequent violence have cast a shadow over the democratic process, highlighting the need for electoral reforms and stronger mechanisms to ensure transparency and fairness in future elections.

2) Lithuania: -  Lithuania's parliamentary elections, held on October 13 and 27, 2024, utilized a mixed electoral system to select the 141 members of the Seimas. This system combines 71 single-member constituencies, where candidates must secure an absolute majority to win, with 70 seats filled through proportional representation in a nationwide constituency. If no candidate achieves over 50% in the first round within a single-member constituency, a second round is conducted between the top two candidates.

In the 2024 elections, the center-left Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) emerged victorious, securing 52 seats in the Seimas. The ruling center-right Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) obtained 28 seats, marking a significant shift in the political landscape. The LSDP's success was attributed to public dissatisfaction with the incumbent government's handling of economic issues, particularly rising living costs and income inequality.

Summary:- Following the election, the LSDP initiated coalition talks to form a majority government. They extended invitations to the Union of Democrats "For Lithuania" and the Union of Peasants and Greens, which secured 14 and 8 seats respectively. This coalition aims to address pressing domestic concerns while maintaining Lithuania's strong support for Ukraine amid ongoing regional tensions.

The election process was generally deemed fair and transparent by international observers, with a voter turnout of approximately 41.31%. The peaceful transition of power underscores Lithuania's commitment to democratic principles and the effective functioning of its mixed electoral system.

3) Moldova :- In October and November 2024, Moldova underwent significant political events that have shaped its future trajectory. On October 20, the nation held a constitutional referendum to determine whether the aspiration for European Union (EU) membership should be enshrined in the constitution. This was followed by the first round of the presidential election on the same day, with a subsequent runoff on November 3. These events were pivotal in deciding Moldova's alignment between pro-European and pro-Russian influences.

The constitutional referendum resulted in a narrow victory for the pro-EU stance, with 50.39% of voters supporting the amendment to include EU membership aspirations in the constitution. This slim margin highlighted the nation's division on the issue. The referendum was marred by allegations of foreign interference, particularly from Russia, which was accused of attempting to sway public opinion against EU integration through disinformation campaigns and support for opposition groups.

Concurrently, the presidential election saw incumbent President Maia Sandu, a pro-European leader, seeking re-election. In the first round, Sandu secured 42.45% of the vote, leading to a runoff against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a candidate with pro-Russian leanings, who received 25.98%. The runoff on November 3 concluded with Sandu's re-election, as she garnered 55% of the votes, reaffirming her mandate to pursue a pro-European agenda. This election was also overshadowed by claims of Russian meddling, including cyberattacks and alleged vote-buying schemes aimed at undermining the democratic process.

Summary:- The outcomes of these events have significant implications for Moldova's future. The constitutional amendment paves the way for formal EU accession talks, aligning Moldova more closely with European standards and policies. President Sandu's re-election provides continuity in leadership, reinforcing the country's commitment to EU integration. However, the narrow margins and allegations of foreign interference underscore the challenges ahead, including the need to address internal divisions and bolster democratic institutions against external pressures.

In summary, Moldova's recent referendum and presidential election have set the stage for a potential shift towards European integration. The narrow approval of the constitutional amendment and Sandu's re-election reflect a populace that is cautiously optimistic about aligning with the EU, despite external challenges. The government now faces the task of uniting the nation and implementing reforms necessary for EU membership, all while safeguarding its sovereignty against foreign interference.

4) Georgia:- The 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections, held on October 26, were pivotal in shaping the nation's political trajectory. The ruling Georgian Dream party secured 53.93% of the vote, maintaining its majority in the 150-member parliament. This election was conducted under a fully proportional representation system with a 5% electoral threshold, as established by the 2017 constitutional amendments.

The election process faced significant criticism from opposition parties and international observers. Allegations of electoral fraud, including bribery, double voting, and instances of physical violence, were reported. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) highlighted these irregularities, noting a divisive atmosphere during the elections.

Summary:- In response to the disputed results, widespread protests erupted in the capital, Tbilisi. Demonstrators established tent camps, demanding new elections and expressing concerns over the government's perceived shift towards authoritarianism and closer ties with Russia. The situation escalated when the head of Georgia's Central Electoral Commission was doused with black paint during a meeting to confirm the election results, symbolizing the intense public dissatisfaction.

The European Union expressed ambivalence regarding the election outcomes, urging swift and transparent investigations into the alleged irregularities. The EU's concerns were further amplified by Georgia's controversial "foreign influence law," which led to the suspension of EU membership talks. This election is seen as a critical juncture for Georgia's aspirations towards European integration, with the international community closely monitoring the unfolding political developments.

5) Bulgaria: - On October 27, 2024, Bulgaria held its sixth snap parliamentary election since 2021, a consequence of ongoing political instability and the failure to form a stable government in previous attempts. The center-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, emerged as the leading party, securing approximately 26.4% of the vote. Despite this lead, GERB fell short of an outright majority in the 240-seat National Assembly, necessitating coalition negotiations to establish a functioning government

The election results highlighted a fragmented political landscape. The reformist "We Continue the Change" (PP) party garnered around 14.9% of the vote, while the ultra-nationalist Revival party received approximately 12.9%. This distribution underscores the challenges in forming a cohesive coalition, as the significant variance in party platforms complicates consensus-building efforts.

Summary:- The persistent political deadlock has had tangible repercussions on Bulgaria's socio-economic environment. The absence of a stable government has impeded the effective utilization of European Union recovery funds and delayed critical reforms necessary for Bulgaria's integration into the Schengen Area and the adoption of the euro. These delays have raised concerns about Bulgaria's economic stability and its alignment with broader EU objectives.

In response to the election outcomes, Boyko Borissov expressed a willingness to engage in coalition talks with all parties except the Revival party. However, the diverse and often opposing political agendas present within the National Assembly suggest that forming a stable and effective government will be a complex and potentially protracted process. The international community continues to monitor Bulgaria's political developments closely, given their implications for regional stability and EU cohesion.

6) Japan :- On October 27, 2024, Japan held general elections for the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's decision to dissolve the House and call for early elections aimed to solidify his mandate amid internal party challenges and public dissatisfaction. The elections saw a voter turnout of approximately 58%, reflecting moderate public engagement

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Ishiba, experienced significant losses, securing only 191 seats—a decrease from their previous 247 seats. Their coalition partner, Komeito, also saw a reduction, winning 24 seats, down from 32. This outcome resulted in the coalition losing its majority in the 465-seat chamber, marking the worst election result for the LDP since 2009.

In contrast, the opposition parties made notable gains. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) increased its representation from 98 to 148 seats, while the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) expanded from 7 to 28 seats. These shifts indicate a growing public desire for change and a move away from the long-standing dominance of the LDP.

Summary:- The election results have plunged Japan into political uncertainty. With the ruling coalition losing its majority, Prime Minister Ishiba faces challenges in forming a stable government and advancing his policy agenda. The LDP's internal dynamics and potential coalition negotiations with opposition parties will be crucial in determining the country's political direction in the coming months.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has been elected by the National Diet (Parliament) for a Coalition Govt on 11 November 2024 by Ishiba’s LDP along with Komeito and Democratic Party for the People Nippon Ishn no Kai (Japan Innovation Party) by securing the Minimum 221 Votes for Proving Majority in Diet.

7) Uzbekistan:- On October 27, 2024, Uzbekistan conducted its parliamentary elections, marking a significant event in the nation's political landscape. The elections were held under a mixed electoral system, combining majoritarian and proportional representation, a structure introduced in recent constitutional reforms. Voter turnout was reported at approximately 74.72%, surpassing the 33% threshold required for the election's validity

The ruling Uzbekistan Liberal Democratic Party (UzLiDeP) emerged as the dominant force, securing 64 out of 150 seats in the Legislative Chamber, accounting for 42.7% of the total. Other parties' seat allocations were as follows:

National Revival Democratic Party: 29 seats (19.3%)

Justice Social Democratic Party: 21 seats (14%)

People's Democratic Party: 20 seats (13%)

Ecological Party: 16 seats (10.7%)

These results indicate a continued concentration of power within the pro-government parties, with no genuine opposition representation in the parliament.

The election process faced criticism from international observers and human rights organizations. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) noted that while the elections were conducted peacefully, they lacked genuine political competition. All registered parties were supportive of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's administration, and no opposition parties were permitted to participate. Observers highlighted restrictions on fundamental freedoms, including association, assembly, and expression, which hindered the development of a pluralistic political environment.

Summary:- In the aftermath of the elections, President Mirziyoyev addressed the newly formed parliament, emphasizing the need to "revive the opposition" within the political system. He acknowledged the absence of genuine opposition parties and expressed a commitment to fostering a more inclusive political landscape. However, critics remain sceptical, citing the entrenched nature of the current political structure and the challenges associated with implementing substantive democratic reforms.

8) Botswana: - On October 30, 2024, Botswana held its general elections, marking a pivotal moment in the nation's political history. The elections were conducted to determine the composition of the 13th Parliament, with all 61 seats in the National Assembly up for contest. The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had maintained power since the country's independence in 1966, faced significant challenges amid economic concerns and calls for political change.

The opposition coalition, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), led by Duma Boko, achieved a historic victory by securing a majority in the National Assembly. This outcome ended the BDP's 58-year dominance, signaling a shift in Botswana's political landscape. The UDC's campaign resonated with voters, particularly the youth, by addressing issues such as unemployment and economic diversification.

Following the election results, President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat, acknowledging the will of the people and committing to a peaceful transition of power. This concession was lauded both domestically and internationally as a testament to Botswana's democratic principles. Duma Boko was subsequently sworn in as the new President, marking the first time an opposition leader has ascended to the presidency in Botswana.

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Summary:- The international community, including neighbouring African nations and global observers, commended Botswana for its peaceful electoral process and the smooth transfer of power. The UDC's victory is viewed as a reflection of the electorate's desire for change and a more diversified economy, reducing reliance on diamond exports. As President, Duma Boko faces the challenge of addressing economic issues and fulfilling the expectations of a populace eager for reform.

9) Tunisia: - On October 6, 2024, Tunisia held its presidential election, resulting in the re-election of incumbent President Kais Saied. The Independent High Authority for Elections announced that Saied secured 90.7% of the vote, with a voter turnout of 28.8%, the lowest since the 2011 revolution.The election was marked by the imprisonment of several prominent opponents, leading to a lack of significant challengers.

The electoral process faced criticism from opposition parties and international observers. Concerns were raised about the fairness of the election, citing the suppression of dissent and the absence of credible competitors. The low voter turnout was interpreted as a sign of public disillusionment with the political climate and the perceived erosion of democratic norms.

Following his re-election, President Saied emphasized his commitment to combating corruption and implementing political reforms. He called for a "cultural revolution" aimed at addressing unemployment, terrorism, and systemic corruption. However, critics expressed concerns that his actions might further consolidate power and undermine democratic institutions.

Summary:- The international community responded with caution to the election results. While some nations acknowledged the outcome, others expressed apprehension regarding Tunisia's democratic trajectory. Human rights organizations urged the Tunisian government to uphold civil liberties and ensure the protection of political freedoms.